Japanese Retail May Get a Jolt
Wal-Mart Is a Likely Suitor
For Stake in Supermarket Chain Daiei
TOKYO -- One of Japan's biggest supermarket chains appears to be up for sale, signaling the start of a major shake-up for the sector and giving Wal-Mart Stores Inc. another chance to take a bigger piece of the world's second-largest retail market.
The company in question, Daiei Inc., is 44.6% owned by trading house Marubeni Corp., which bought that stake in July. But in August, Marubeni said it would consider proposals from companies interested in investing in the retailer. The most likely candidates to buy the stake are Japan's Aeon Co. -- Asia's largest retailer by sales -- and Wal-Mart, of Bentonville, Arkansas.
A consolidation with either of these megaretailers could have a major impact on Japan's struggling general-merchandising business. Japan's overall retail industry is growing, as wages rise steadily for the first time in years, fueling consumer spending. Investors have grabbed retail stocks in the last year, sending the retailer index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange up 50% in the 12 months to Feb. 28.
But that money isn't getting spent in supermarkets. Nationwide sales at supermarkets fell 3.2% in July compared with the same month a year earlier -- the seventh straight month of year-on-year declines, according to industry statistics. In addition, the supermarket business is fragmented, with several midsize players fighting for market share.
But a deal to buy into Daiei, Japan's third-largest retailer, by Aeon or Wal-Mart would create a retail giant. If Aeon invests in Daiei, the new company would operate 22% of the total floor space operated by Japanese supermarkets. If Wal-Mart invests in Daiei, the new company would have 13% when joined with Wal-Mart's Japanese unit, Seiyu Ltd.
Scale of that size would likely give a company for the first time negotiating leverage with the country's notoriously complex and inefficient wholesale-distribution centers. In other markets, Wal-Mart has become an unstoppable retail force, largely because of its ability to negotiate with suppliers and drive down prices. Having fewer, larger players in Japan might mean they, too, would have more power over prices.
Analysts expect Marubeni to receive proposals from potential buyers this month and to make a decision in October. The decision could set off a ripple effect in the retail industry, says Kenji Tsukazawa, a Tokyo-based analyst with J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
This kind of combined market share "would be likely to give the company strong control over prices and negotiations with wholesalers," Mr. Tsukazawa says.
Daiei has long been a symbol of Japan's bad-debt problems. The company ran up huge debts as it expanded rapidly during the economic boom of the 1980s, but then it was hit hard when Japan's asset bubble burst in the early 1990s and had trouble paying back borrowings.
In 2004, government-backed Industrial Revitalization Corp. of Japan took a majority stake in the retailer. In July, Marubeni bought Daiei shares held by that body for 69.8 billion yen ($603 million at the exchange rate then). Marubeni said at the time that it planned to hold the Daiei shares for the long term. Last month's statement suggests it has reconsidered.
Wal-Mart fell out of the running to invest in Daiei when the IRCJ rejected its proposal to restructure the supermarket chain. But analysts think Wal-Mart might jump at a second chance.
Billie Cole, a spokeswoman for Wal-Mart in Tokyo, declined to comment on whether the company would make an offer for Daiei. Aeon said in a statement that it wasn't in talks with Marubeni at this time.
Wal-Mart became actively involved in Japan in 2002, when it raised its stake in Seiyu to 34% from 6.1%, making it the company's biggest shareholder. Wal-Mart has since raised its stake in Seiyu to 54% and operates more than 400 Seiyu outlets in Japan.
But almost four years later, Wal-Mart is still trying to find its footing and adjust to the local culture. In July, the Seiyu unit posted a group net loss of 54.03 billion yen ($465.9 million) for the six-month period that ended June 30 -- much worse than a 10.59 billion yen loss in the same period a year earlier. Seiyu's revenue fell 2.9% to 467.95 billion yen.
Wal-Mart also has had difficulties in other foreign markets since it began expanding internationally in the early 1990s. In July, the retailer said it would sell its German operations to a rival company, giving up its foothold in continental Europe. In May, Wal-Mart said it would sell its 16 stores in South Korea.
Part of Wal-Mart's problem in Japan was its philosophy of "always low prices." This didn't sit well with Japanese consumers, who are accustomed to paying high prices every day and often equate low prices with low quality.
So in 2005, Wal-Mart's Seiyu unit remodeled stores and launched higher-priced products, introducing a line of fashionable clothing and more fresh foods. The effort paid off in the first half of this year, when same-store sales rose 1.4%, following a long run of declines.
Short term, the sale of a Daiei stake to Aeon or Wal-Mart might not have an immediate impact on the earnings of any of the companies involved, says Masafumi Shoda, a Tokyo-based retail analyst with Nomura Securities.
But, he says, "the move will have an important effect on the general-merchandising business in the Tokyo metropolitan area for Aeon and on entry into the Japanese market for Wal-Mart in the long term."
Also, a shrinking number of players in the industry could be good news for investors, says Jun Kawahara, an analyst at Shinko Securities.
"There is a good chance for the stock prices of the companies in the industry to go up when reorganization is taking place," Mr. Kawahara says.
Daiei's shares closed at 2,280 yen ($19.66) yesterday in Tokyo, down more than half from a 52-week high of 4,600 yen reached in February.
大荣待嫁 花落谁家
日本最大的超市连锁店之一行将出售，这标志著该行业大规模整合的开始，也为沃尔玛连锁公司(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)再次带来在日本这个全球第二大零售市场提高占有率的机会。
将被出售的是大荣公司(Daiei Inc.)。贸易商社丸红公司(Marubeni Corp.)在7月份收购了大荣44.6%的股份。但在8月份，丸红表示将考虑有意投资大荣的公司提出的报价。最有可能收购这部分股分的是日本永旺集团(Aeon Co.)和沃尔玛。永旺集团是亚洲销售额最高的零售企业。
同其中任何一家超级零售巨头整合都会对日本低迷的普通零售行业带来巨大影响。随著工资水平多年来首次出现上升、进而促进消费支出，日本零售业总体正在增长。投资者去年积极买进零售类股，推动东京证交所零售指数在截至今年2月28日的12月中上涨了50%。
但这些钱并未花在超市中。业内统计显示，7月份日本全国超市的零售额比上年同期下降了3.2%，是连续第七个月低于上年同期水平。此外，超市行业比较零散，多家中型零售商都在争夺市场占有率。
但收购大荣将使永旺集团或沃尔玛进一步壮大。大荣是日本的第三大零售商。如果永旺集团投资大荣，新公司将拥有日本超市总营业面积的22%。如果沃尔玛投资大荣，新公司同沃尔玛在日本的子公司西友百货公司(Seiyu)总计将拥有日本超市总营业面积的13%。
这样的经营规模有可能让企业首次获得同日本复杂低效的批发中心讨价还价的资格。沃尔玛在其它市场上取得的巨大零售实力在很大程度上就是因为能同供应商讨价还价，从而压低价格。如果日本的零售商数量更少，规模更大，它们也将能对价格拥有更大的发言权。
分析师预计，丸红本月将收到来自潜在买家的出价，并将在10月份做出决定。摩根大通公司(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)驻东京分析师Kenji Tsukazawa说，这一决定可能会在零售业产生连锁效应。
大荣长期以来一直是日本坏帐问题的代表。该公司在上世纪80年代经济繁荣期高速扩张时大举借贷，但在90年代资产泡沫破裂后受到沉重打击，难以偿还贷款。
2004年，具有政府背景的日本产业再生机构(Industrial Revitalization Corp. of Japan)收购了大荣的多数股权。今年7月份，丸红以698亿日圆（以当时汇率计为6.03亿美元）收购了该机构持有的大荣股份。丸红当时表示，计划长期持有大荣股份。上个月的声明显示，该公司已经改变了想法。
当年，由于日本产业再生机构拒绝沃尔玛重组大荣的建议，沃尔玛没能得到投资大荣的机会。但分析师认为，沃尔玛可能会再次争取这样的机会。
沃尔玛驻东京发言人比利?科尔(Billie Cole)拒绝评论公司是否会出价收购大荣。永旺集团在声明中表示，目前并未同丸红进行商谈。
沃尔玛从2002年开始大举进入日本市场，当时它将所持西友百货的股份从6.1%增加到34%，一举成为该公司最大的股东。后来沃尔玛将所持西友百货的股份增加到54%，管理著后者在日本的400多家商店。
但过去了近4年时间，沃尔玛仍在努力找到切入点，并适应本地的文化。今年7月份，西友百货公布截止6月30日的半年亏损540.3亿日圆（4.659亿美元），大大高于上年同期105.9亿日圆的亏损。该公司的收入下降了2.9%，为4679.5亿日圆。
自沃尔玛从90年代初开始在国际市场扩张以来，在其它海外市场也遭遇了困难。今年7月份，沃尔玛表示将把其德国业务卖给竞争对手，放弃在欧洲大陆的据点。5月份，沃尔玛表示将出售在韩国的16家商店。
沃尔玛在日本的问题之一在于其“天天低价”的理念。这并未得到日本消费者的认同，他们习惯于日常的高价商品，经常将低价同劣质划上等号。
为此，沃尔玛旗下的西友百货在2005年对商店进行了改造，推出了高价商品，引进了一系列时尚服装和更多生鲜食品。这种努力在今年上半年取得了成效，同店销售额在长期下滑后出现了1.4%的增长。
野村证券(Nomura Securities)驻东京零售业分析师Masafumi Shoda说，短期来看，购买大荣的股份不会对永旺集团或沃尔玛的收益立刻产生影响。
但他表示，此举将对永旺集团在东京都市区的普通零售业和沃尔玛进入日本市场的长期策略产生深远影响。
新光证券(Shinkong Securities)分析师Jun Kawahara说，零售业商家数量的减少对投资者也是好消息。
Kawahara说，重组将给这些公司的股价带来上涨机会。
大荣公司股票周三收于2,280日圆（19.66美元），较今年2月创出的4,600日圆的52周高点下跌一半以上。
Amy Chozick
