日本新首相安倍今起访华Abe scores diplomatic coup with Beijing
It has taken Shinzo Abe less than a week to get what Junichiro Koizumi could not manage in five years: an invitation to China.
Japan's new prime minister flies to Beijing tomorrow where he will meet China's President Hu Jintao for the first proper Sino-Japanese summit since Mr Koizumi went for his one and only prime ministerial visit in 2001. From there, MrAbe will go on Monday for talks in Seoul with Roh Moo-hyun, the South Korean ssleader, another neighbour who could not standthe sight of Mr Koizumi.
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As if this diplomatic coup did not already appear too good to be true, Mr Abe has pulled it off without making any overt concessions to Beijing or Seoul. He has not made any public commitment to refrain from visiting Yasukuni shrine, the symbol of Japan's military past that became a flashpoint with Japan's neighbours during the previous administration of Mr Koizumi.
So how has Mr Abe, who has the reputation of being more of a hawk than his predecessor, managed to achieve this?
Akihiko Tanaka, a China expert at Tokyo university, says both China and Japan were keen to use the political transition in Tokyo to escape the abnormality of the Koizumi years.
"Yasukuni became not a matter of substance but a matter of face from which neither Koizumi nor the Chinese leaders could back down," he says. "But this confrontation has been too costly for the Chinese leadership, so they are looking for a way out. In China's mind, so long as Abe is wise enough to stay out of Yasukuni, they can do business."
From Mr Abe's point of view, almost as important as patching up relations with Japan's biggest trading partner, argues Professor Tanaka, is playing well to the Japanese public. Next summer he faces upper house elections that could, theoretically, unseat his young administration almost before it has started.
By repairing relations with neighbours, he can demonstrate to the electorate that he is not the dangerous nationalist he is sometimes made out to be, but rather a pragmatist who occupies the safe centre ground. Shaking off his hawkish image also helps relations with Komeito, the pacifist party on which Mr Abe's Liberal Democrats depend for their upper house majority.
"Mr Abe's strategy is to utilise these diplomatic successes in the first two to three months and gradually unfold some of his domestic agenda, while hoping that the economy continues to grow," Prof Tanaka says. "By this means he hopes to demonstrate to the public that he has a stable government that they can rely on."
Mr Abe's shift to the centre ground - noticeable even before he assumed office - was palpable in parliament this week when he repeated apologies made by previous governments about Japan's wartime record.
"As a result of starting war, many Japanese lost their lives and families, and we left many scars on the people of Asia," he said. He even went so far as to say that his beloved grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi - arrested but never convicted of war crimes - bore responsibility for the war.
Noriko Hama, professor at Doshisha Business School, argues that both Mr Abe's apparent conversion and the seeming breakthrough with neighbours are built on powdery foundations.
This weekend's summits are fraught with risk, she says, including the possibility of Mr Abe being lectured about Japanese history as Mr Koizumi was in Seoul last year.
But even if the meetings go well - for example the three sides could rally around common language over the North Korean nuclear threat - the potential exists for things to unravel quickly after that, Prof Hama says.
She doubts, for example, whether merely meeting will lead to much progress on substantive disputes, including over territory, gas resources, submarine incursions and differing interpretations of mutual history. Nor does she regard Mr Abe's adoption of pragmatism over ideology as necessarily permanent. "He seems to be drifting and responding to circumstances. He's swaying to the centre at the moment, but he could just as easily sway back to the right."
All it would take, she says, is for Mr Abe to let slip an offensive remark, bring in a provocative bill or, worst of all, visit Yasukuni and the whole diplomatic breakthrough could crumble. "It's all very fragile indeed."
日本新首相安倍今起访华
日本新首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)用了不到一周时间，就得到了前任小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)五年都没有得到的东西：访华邀请。
这位日本新任首相将于周日飞往北京，与中国国家主席胡锦涛举行会晤。这将是自小泉2001年唯一一次以首相身份访华以来，首次正式的中日峰会。
此次外交突破格外令人难以置信的地方在于，安倍并没有向北京或首尔作出明显让步。他没有作出任何不参拜靖国神社(Yasukuni shrine)的公开承诺。靖国神社是日本军国主义历史的象征，在之前的小泉执政期间，成为了日本与邻国争执的冲突点。
那么享有比小泉更为强硬之名的安倍，是如何做到这一点的呢？
东京大学(Tokyo university)中国问题专家田中明彦(Akihiko Tanaka)表示，中日双方都渴望利用日本政府换届之机，结束小泉时期中日关系的不正常状态。
“靖国神社后来不再是一个实质问题，而变成了一个面子问题，无论是小泉还是中国领导人，都无法作出让步，”田中明彦表示。“但对于中国领导层而言，这种对抗的代价过于高昂，因此他们正在寻找办法，走出困境。在中国人看来，只要安倍足够明智，置身于靖国神社之外，他们就可以与其交往。”
通过修补与邻国的关系，安倍可以向日本选民展示，他并不像外界有时候所认为的那样，是个危险的民粹主义者，而是一个占据安全的中间立场的务实主义者。
上周在日本国会，可以清楚察觉到安倍向中间立场的转变（这种转变甚至在他上台前就可注意到），他重复了历届政府就日本战争罪行所作的道歉。
他表示：“由于发动战争，许多日本人失去了生命和家庭，我们还给亚洲人民留下了许多创伤。”他甚至表示，他深爱的外祖父岸信介(Nobusuke Kishi)对战争负有责任。岸信介曾作为战犯被捕，但未被判犯有战争罪。
