朝鲜核试验令中国左右为难 Pyongyang Puts China in a Bind Nuclear Test Forces Beijing to Reconsider
Policy of Noninterference
North Korea's claims of a nuclear test have dealt a blow to China's most ambitious foray into international diplomacy.
China, which set itself up as a mediator to work for a nuclear-free Korean peninsula, now faces a bind as its Asian neighbors and the U.S. weigh options for tougher sanctions against North Korea. The reclusive Communist country shares a 1,416-kilometer border with China and counts it among its few friends.
Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, who made his name as a politician by being tough on North Korea, said "Japan will now consider harsh measures." South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun said the policy of engagement had been ineffective.
Since 2003, China led negotiations among North Korea's neighbors and the U.S. to avoid just such an outcome, consistently urging patience along the way.
China's leaders took great pride in the talks, which were hosted in Beijing, the only place where North Korean negotiators felt comfortable.
The talks brought together China, the two Koreas, Japan, Russia and the U.S. to try to defuse the nuclear crisis. They represented a breakthrough in China's efforts to portray itself as a mature player on the international scene and to counterbalance criticism of its close ties to countries seen as hostile to the U.S., including Iran, or as politically unsavory, such as Myanmar.
Now, North Korea's apparent nuclear test is forcing China once again to consider how wedded it can remain to its long-touted policy of not interfering in the "internal affairs" of other states. How Beijing responds will indicate how broadly it defines its national interests.
The choice could represent a turning point for China as it assumes a more-prominent role on the world stage, one in which it presents itself, at least in part, as an alternative to U.S. leadership.
A statement issued yesterday by the Chinese Foreign Ministry condemned North Korea, which it said had "flagrantly conducted a nuclear test in disregard of the common opposition of the international community." It also called for a "cool-headed" response and a "peaceful solution through consultation and dialogue."
Mei Renyi, director of the U.S. Studies Center of Beijing Foreign Studies University, said North Korea's apparent action puts China in a difficult position because it took a "leadership position" in the talks. "For a long time, all the countries in the Asia-Pacific region tolerated North Korea's nuclear threat, but its nuclear test today puts it in total isolation," he said.
Though lately Beijing has hardened its rhetoric against North Korea's escalating nuclear provocations, it now faces a set of uncomfortable choices.
It almost certainly will come under pressure to punish North Korea with additional sanctions. It could be asked to seize North Korean planes or detain its ships.
China supplies most of North Korea's crude oil and much of its food, which it sends on trains and trucks that shuttle across the frontier. China is North Korea's most important trading partner: two-way trade more than doubled from 2001 to 2005 to reach $1.58 billion, according to Chinese official statistics.
Even with mounting international pressure, China is unlikely to go along with measures by the U.S. and Japan that could destabilize the North Korean regime of Kim Jong Il, according to analysts and diplomats who track Chinese foreign policy. Beijing has long feared that North Korea might implode under pressure and spill millions of starving refugees across its borders.
"There is a common misbelief in Washington that China will play the American game," says Alexandre Mansourov, an associate professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, a think tank funded by the U.S. Department of Defense. "But, if anything, China is interested in promoting its own interest."
Beijing's ties to North Korea run deep. It sent legions of Chinese soldiers to their deaths to support former North Korean leader Kim Il Sung against U.S.-led forces in the Korean War, sending troops across the border in 1950.
When Mao Zedong led China during the Cold War era, Beijing considered its relations with Pyongyang to be "as close as lips and teeth." Its leaders rallied support at home through "Aid Korea, Resist America" propaganda campaigns. The former Communist Party chairman himself lost his oldest son in the war.
China's friendship with an old revolutionary ally has cooled in recent years, particularly since Beijing established diplomatic relations with South Korea in 1992.
Chinese diplomats frequently protest that they now are powerless to influence the behavior of their erratic neighbor. They express frustration that North Korea has failed to implement the kind of capitalist-style overhauls that turned China from an economic laggard into the world's fastest-growing economy over the past quarter century.
To prod Kim Jong Il to focus on economic development instead of military buildup, China has sent him on tours of its showcase cities, such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, and has attempted to dazzle him with newly acquired science and technology.
Still, North Korea also plays to China's needs. A belligerent North Korea pins down U.S. troops in Asia, tying up thousands of American soldiers stationed in South Korea to ward off an attack. That suits Beijing, which worries about U.S. military intervention if China ever were to use force to reunify Taiwan with the Chinese mainland.
Chinese trading companies along the border say they are worried about the business fallout from the nuclear test. Dandong Foreign Trade General Corp., which sells North Korea everything from farm products to machinery, has dropped plans to invest in the country, says a company executive. "We simply do not have the guts to do it now," says the executive. He says his company is owed $1 million by North Koreans. "They always say 'we'll pay you back when our country is stronger and richer.' And now, with the nuclear test, they're making things worse than ever," he says.
Sheila Smith, an analyst at the East-West Center, of Hawaii, believes China could be persuaded to harden its attitude toward North Korea. Even before the latest crisis, she says, Beijing has briefly stopped the flow of oil to its neighbor, a signal that its patience has limits. She notes that China joined the U.N. Security Council in condemning North Korea when it launched missiles in July. "China has lots of leverage" against North Korea, she says.
U.S. officials say Beijing has given some support to American efforts to crack down on North Korean money laundering linked to its illicit trade in narcotics and counterfeit currency. There is speculation that such moves infuriated Mr. Kim and may have prompted him to lash out by conducting a nuclear test that Beijing had specifically warned against.
Japan appears to be the country most immediately vulnerable to North Korea's nuclear ambitions: Pyongyang historically regards it as an enemy, and it is within range of the North's missiles.
Speaking at a news conference yesterday in Seoul, where he had just met with South Korea's Mr. Roh, Mr. Abe said: "A North Korea with nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles constitutes a grave threat....Japan will now consider harsh measures." He said he wanted the Security Council to adopt a "tough resolution."
Experts don't expect Japan to move toward developing nuclear weapons of its own. Such a move would have the potential to kick off an arms race in the region and put Japan in even more danger. Instead, Japan will likely continue recent moves to strengthen its security alliance with the U.S., such as its involvement in a missile-defense project and plans to locate greater numbers of U.S. troops in Japan.
Japan might eventually spend more on defense, which it currently limits to 1% of its gross domestic product. Japan is unlikely to make any quick move to remilitarize. When asked yesterday in Seoul about Japan's militarism in the first half of last century, Mr. Abe apologized for the "tremendous suffering" Japan had inflicted on its neighbors. He then pointed out that Japan's recognition of this was the reason it had avoided aggression for the past 60 years.
South Korean's Mr. Roh, whose dovish approach to the North has strained his country's alliance with the U.S., reflected the dismay of a region that had placed high expectations on Beijing's ability to rein in Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions.
Mr. Roh bluntly conceded the failure of the softly-softly approach. "We cannot argue the engagement policy was effective," he said.
朝鲜核试验令中国左右为难
朝鲜宣布进行核试验给中国进军国际外交舞台的一次最大胆尝试造成了沉重打击。
朝鲜核试验相关报导
? 朝鲜宣布成功进行了核试验
? 中国“坚决反对”朝鲜进行核试验
? 朝鲜进行了核武器试验
? 朝鲜将进行核试验
中国在实现朝鲜半岛无核化的国际努力中一直将自己定位为调停者，随着其亚洲邻国和美国威胁对朝鲜实施更严厉的制裁，包括在联合国授权下对朝鲜进行惩罚，中国将面临左右为难的局面。朝鲜同中国有着1,416公里的边界，且将中国视为为数不多的朋友之一。
日本新任首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)表示，日本将考虑严厉的应对措施。他被外界视为对朝鲜持强硬态度的政治家。韩国总统卢武铉(Roh Moo Hyun)称，接触政策一直没有取得效果。
为了避免上述结果，自2003年以来中国一直在牵头举行由朝鲜及其邻国和美国参加的六方会谈，并一直敦促各方保持耐心。
中国领导人对在北京举行的六方会谈颇感自豪。北京也是朝鲜感到能接受的唯一谈判地点。
中国、朝鲜、韩国、日本、俄罗斯和美国这六国希望通过谈判化解朝核危机。这一谈判是中国努力以成熟的形像立身国际舞台的一次突破，它也有助于缓和外界对其同伊朗等敌视美国的国家和缅甸等独裁国家保持亲密关系的批评。
现在，朝鲜的核试验将迫使中国重新考虑其长期宣传的不干涉别国“内政”的政策。中国对此事的反应将显示它对自身利益的界定范围。中国的选择可能成为其在国际舞台上发挥更重要作用方面的转折点。
中国外交部周一发表的声明指责了朝鲜。声明中称朝鲜“无视国际社会的普遍反对，悍然实施核试验”。声明呼吁有关各方“冷静应对，坚持通过协商和对话和平解决问题。”
北京外国语大学美国研究中心主任梅仁毅说，朝鲜的做法让北京陷入困难境地，因为中国一直在六方会谈中发挥着领导作用。他说，长期以来，亚太地区的所有国家都容忍了朝鲜的核威胁，但朝鲜此次的核试验将使其处于完全孤立的状态。
尽管中国政府最近对朝鲜不断升级的核挑衅发表了更为强硬的言论，但它也面临着两难选择。
显然中国将面临制裁朝鲜的压力，而此举将导致朝鲜经济濒临崩溃。中国可能还会被要求扣留朝鲜的飞机或船只。
中国供应了朝鲜所需的绝大多数原油和大部分食品。中国是朝鲜最重要的贸易伙伴：根据中国官方的统计数据，2001年至2005年间，两国双边贸易额增长了一倍以上，达到15.8亿美元。
关注中国外交政策的分析师和外交人员称，即使面临不断增加的国际压力，中国也不太可能采取美国和日本提出的可能危及朝鲜金正日(Kim Jong Il)政权的措施。中国一直担心朝鲜会出现内乱，从而导致数百万饥饿的朝鲜难民涌入中国。
美国国防部资助的研究机构──亚太安全研究中心(Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies)的副教授亚历山大?曼斯洛夫(Alexandre Mansourov)说，华盛顿普遍存在一种错误想法，即中国将按照美国的思路出牌。但在任何情况下，中国首先考虑的都是自身利益。
中国同朝鲜的关系根深蒂固。1950年时，中国曾派遣志愿军进入朝鲜支持前领导人金日成(Kim Il Sung)，与美国为首的部队作战。
在冷战时期毛泽东领导中国时，中国认为与朝鲜是“唇齿相依”的关系。中国的领导人通过“抗美援朝”宣传运动赢得了国内的支持。毛泽东的长子也在这场战争中阵亡。
近年来，特别是1992年与韩国建立外交关系以来，中国与朝鲜这一传统革命盟友的友谊已经冷却。
中国的外交官们经常声称，他们目前已无力影响这一古怪邻国的行为。他们对朝鲜未能进行市场经济改革感到沮丧，正是这种改革使中国在过去25年中由一个经济发展落后的国家转变成了世界上经济增长最快的经济体。
为了促使金正日集中精力发展经济而不是扩充军备，中国曾邀请他到上海和深圳等中国改革开放的窗口城市参观，并试图用自己新取得的科技成果来吸引他的兴趣。
不过，朝鲜也能满足中国的需要。一个好战的朝鲜能够牵制驻扎在亚洲的美军，为了防止朝鲜的军事打击，美国不得不在韩国派驻成千上万的军队。美国的军事力量被束缚在朝鲜半岛对中国有利，因为中国担心一旦它真的动用武力来统一台湾，美国可能会进行军事干涉。
中朝边境一线的中国贸易公司称，它们担心朝鲜进行核试验会给自己的生意造成不利影响。丹东外贸总公司(Dandong Foreign Trade General Corp.)向朝鲜出口的商品从农产品到机械无所不包，该公司一位管理人士说，公司已放弃了投资朝鲜的计划。他说：“我们现在可没勇气这样做。”据这位管理人士称，朝鲜人还欠他的公司100万美元。“他们总是说'当我们国家更富强些时我们会还的。'可现在，由于核试验，他们把局面弄得比以往更糟了。”
夏威夷东西中心(East-West Center)的分析师希拉?史密斯(Sheila Smith)认为，可以劝说中国对朝鲜采取强硬态度。她说，甚至在朝鲜此次进行核试验之前，中国就曾短暂停止过对朝鲜的石油供应，这表明它的耐心是有限度的。史密斯指出，当今年7月朝鲜试射导弹时，中国和联合国安理会的其他成员国一道对朝鲜进行了谴责。她说，中国对付朝鲜的手段有很多。
美国官员说，美国在打击朝鲜的洗钱活动方面得到了北京的一些支持，这些洗钱活动是与朝鲜的非法毒品贸易和印制伪钞活动相关联的。有传言说，可能正是这些反洗钱行动激怒了金正日，促使他不顾北京的明确反对进行核试验以作为反击。
日本似乎是最易受到朝鲜核野心威胁的国家：平壤一贯将日本视为自己的敌人，而日本也在朝鲜的导弹射程之内。
日本首相安倍晋三周一在与韩国总统卢武铉会晤后举行的新闻发布会上说：“一个拥有核武器和弹道导弹的朝鲜是一个严重威胁……日本现在将考虑严厉的应对措施。”他说，希望联合国安理会能通过一个“强硬的决议”。
专家们并不认为日本会向自行开发核武器方向迈进。这一行动有可能引发东亚地区的军备竞赛，从而使日本处于更加危险的境地。相反，日本预计会继续其强化美日安保联盟的现行政策，比如说参与美国的导弹防御项目，允许更多美军驻扎在日本等。
日本可能最终会增加防卫开支，该国的国防支出目前被控制在国内生产总值的1%以下。日本不大可能迅速出台再军事化的举措。当周一在首尔访问的安倍晋三被问及日本在上世纪前半期的军国主义问题时，他对日本以往给邻国造成的“巨大苦难”表示了道歉。安倍随后指出，正是由于这一原因日本在过去60年中没有再走上侵略道路。
韩国总统卢武铉的谈话则反映了对中国未能控制住朝鲜的核野心而产生的沮丧情绪。卢武铉对朝鲜采取的温和态度损害了韩国与美国的同盟关系。
卢武铉坦率承认，那种对朝鲜百般迁就的做法已经失败了。他说：“我们不能说接触政策是有效的。”
Andrew Browne / Mei Fong / Sebastian Moffett
