Serene economist intent on the art of the politically possible
For a 74-year-old academic with two jobs, one of which involves running a country of 1.1bn people, Manmohan Singh is remarkably serene as he greets visitors at his Race Course Road residence in the centre of Lutyens' Delhi.
Although his hands are more than full at home, where he is seeking to relaunch a stalled programme of economic reform, prime minister (and foreign minister) Singh must also deal with a host of complex foreign policy challenges.
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In Washington, a historic deal to end India's pariah status as an outsider to the nuclear club is at risk, with longstanding congressional concerns at making an exception for New Delhi compounded by North Korea's intent to test a nuclear bomb.
Within the region, relations with Pakistan, its neighbour and nuclear rival, have hit a fresh low in the wake of the Mumbai bombings, blamed by the city's police chief on Pakistan's ISI intelligence service.
So when he meets Tony Blair in London tomorrow and receives an honorary doctorate at Cambridge, where he studied as an undergraduate in the late 1950s before moving to Oxford for his doctorate, Mr Singh will enjoy a rare breathing space.
A foreign policy premier by accident rather than design, the economist knows that his legacy will be largely determined by the US-India nuclear deal, last week subjected to a raft of new and controversial Senate amendments. If the legislative process in Washington fails to wrap up before a newly elected Congress re-sits in January, the entire text will be subject to renegotiation and amendment in both chambers, a potentially mortal blow.
Asked about the deal's prospects, Mr Singh remains impassive: "I am not an astrologer." But he is visibly stirred by any suggestion that North Korea's bid to become a nuclear power might influence Congress's desire to normalise relations with India.
"We have an impeccable record at not contributing in any way to unauthorised proliferation. There's no comparison between India and North Korea."
He is similarly robust in his language towards Pakistan, days after President Pervez Musharraf, in his recently published book, questioned the Indian leader's continuing sincerity and flexibility.
"Our concern is that we cannot carry the peaceprocess forward if our country is subject to vicious attacks . . . If this menace is not under control, no leader can run too far ahead of his public opinion and ourpublic opinion is workedup rightly."
Yet Mr Singh stops short of directly endorsing the Mumbai police chief's inflammatory accusation that Pakistan's ISI intelligence services had masterminded the Mumbai commuter train bombing, saying he needed to review the evidence in person.
On China, he defends US policy towards Beijing, describing it as "engagement rather than containment" and saying that India's policy is also one of engagement, even as the two emerging powers compete for energy to fuel their booming economies.
The medium-term goal of the Indian foreign policy establishment is to challenge the existing international order, albeit through persuasion rather than military might. It has been a poor month.
Shashi Tharoor, a UN undersecretary-general and part-time novelist, received a US veto in his bid to succeed Kofi Annan to the top job at the United Nations, a setback to those, such as Mr Singh, championing the new "strategic partnership" with Washington.
That followed a rebuff in Singapore, where India's rapid but recent growth failed to translate into a larger stake in the International Monetary Fund's complex shareholding system, a coveted measure of countries' economic clout.
Such rebuffs explain in part why Mr Singh, acutely conscious of the links between economic performance and strategic power, is so keen to maintain the pace of reform, in the face of obdurate resistance from the coalition government's Left partners.
The Communist bloc is opposing further liberalisation of key sectors, including financial services and retail, whilst attempting to redraw the rules for investors in the telecoms industry by lowering ceilings on foreign direct investment (FDI). Mr Singh is realistic about his prospects. He admits that allowing greater FDI in the $300bn (￡160.4bn) retail sector is "not a priority" for his government and blames the opposition for whipping up fears that allowing in the likes of Wal-Mart and Tesco will lead to massive job losses in "mom-and-pop" stores. Similarly, in telecoms, the one infrastructure sector where India can hold a candle to China, he seems ready to acquiesce in moves to rein back limits in FDI in telecoms to 49 per cent from 74 per cent on what many see as spurious national security grounds.
"We will not do anything that is irrational," he pledges. "But we cannot dismiss concerns about national security. They are not illegitimate. That said, we must reassure people that we remain a country governed by the rule of law."
Few are optimistic that Mr Singh, with elections approaching in key states such as Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, will be able to persuade leftwingers inside and outside the government to enact a second wave of economic reform.
He has not yet given up, but he sounds less than convincing. "There is such a thing as fear of the unknown . . But in human affairs, rationality does play a role and there is such a thing as trying to persuade each other."
辛格为何坚持经济改革
曼
莫汉?辛格(Manmohan Singh)在他位于新德里跑马场路(Race Course Road)的寓所接待来访者时，表现得格外沉静。要知道，这位74岁的学者身兼二职，其中之一便是掌管一个11亿人口的大国。跑马场路处于鲁琴斯(Lutyens)设计的新德里市中心。
尽管他的“家务事”已经排满日程（他正在寻求重新推行一项延迟的经济改革计划），辛格总理（兼外长）还必须同时应付一大堆复杂的外交政策挑战。
在华盛顿，一份历史性协议岌岌可危，这份协议将结束印度作为核俱乐部局外人的“贱民”地位；而长期以来，美国国会一直对为印度政府破例感到担心；现在，朝鲜进行核试验的意图让局面更加混乱。
在这一地区内部，自从孟买爆炸案发生后，印度与其邻国兼核对手巴基斯坦的关系便创下新低，孟买市警察局长直接对巴基斯坦情报署(ISI)进行了谴责。
因此，当辛格近日在伦敦会见托尼?布莱尔(Tony Blair)、并在剑桥大学接受荣誉博士头衔时，他将赢得一个难得的喘息空间。20世纪50年代末期，辛格曾在剑桥读本科，后来在牛津大学获得了博士学位。
这位经济学家当上兼顾外交政策的总理更多是处于偶然、而非有意计划，他知道，自己能留下什么成果将在很大程度上取决于美印核协议。而就在上周，这份协议在美国参议院受到大量新的、富有争议的修正。
如果美国这次的立法程序不能在新一届国会于明年1月重新就任之前完成，美印核协议全文就将需要重新谈判和美国参众两院的重新修正，那可能对该协议构成致命打击。
被问及这次协议的通过前景时，辛格保持着冷静态度：“我并不是占星家。”不过，有观点认为，朝鲜争取成为核大国的努力可能影响到美国国会与印度关系正常化的愿望，这方面的任何说法都让他感到明显不安。
“在进行非法核扩散方面，我们的记录完美无瑕。印度和朝鲜没有可比性。”
在谈到巴基斯坦时，他的措辞也很强硬。几天前，巴基斯坦总统佩尔韦兹?穆沙拉夫(Pervez Musharraf)在其最近出版的新书中，质疑印度领导人能否持续保持真诚和灵活态度。
对此，辛格表示：“我们担心的是，如果我们的国家遭受恶意攻击，我们就不能将和平进程向前推进……如果不能控制这种威胁的话，任何一个领导人都不能超越公众舆论太远，而我们的舆论表现出了恰当的激愤。”
然而，辛格突然停止了直接支持孟买市警察局局长的煽动性言论，即巴基斯坦情报署(ISI)策划了孟买通勤火车爆炸案，辛格称，他需要亲自察看相关证据。
在中国问题上，他为美国的对华政策进行了辩护，他将美国的对华政策描述为“接触而非围堵”，并表示，即便这两个新兴强国正争夺能源，以求为两国蓬勃发展的经济提供动力，印度的对华政策也是一种接触。
印度外交政策的中期目标，是对当前的国际秩序发起挑战，不过挑战的方式是依靠说服而非军力。但在过去一个月，印度这方面的成绩颇为逊色。
联合国(UN)副秘书长沙希?沙洛尔(Shashi Tharoor)在要求接替科菲?安南(Kofi Annan)、坐上联合国头把交椅的过程中遭到美国反对，对于那些像辛格一样支持与美国政府建立新型“战略合作伙伴关系”的人来说，这是一次挫败。出身在英国的印度人沙洛尔还是一位兼职小说家。
此前，印度在新加坡也受到冷遇。印度经济增长迅猛，但高速增长历史较短，因而未能令该国在国际货币基金组织(IMF)复杂的投票权体系中获得更大比例。投票权比例是衡量一国经济实力的一个受青睐的指标。
印度受到的这些冷遇，解释了辛格为何在面对联合政府左翼政党的强大阻力时，仍如此热衷于保持改革步伐。他非常了解经济表现和战略实力之间的关系。
印度的共产主义阵营正反对在多个关键行业进一步自由化，其中包括金融服务业和零售业在内。同时，它们还试图通过降低外国直接投资(FDI)的上限，为电信行业投资者重新制定规则。辛格对他的经济展望持现实态度。他承认，在价值3000亿美元的零售行业中允许更大规模的外国直接投资，对他的政府而言“并非一种优先事项”，并认为反对意见激起了民众的恐惧――有人担心，允许引入沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)和特易购(Tesco)等大型超市后，在小型家庭商店的大量就业岗位将会丧失。同样，在电信业（一个印度可以给中国提供投资机会的基础设施行业），他似乎准备默许将外国直接投资上限从74%调回至49%，理由是国家安全问题。而很多人认为这纯粹是一种借口。
“我们不会做任何非理性的事情。”他承诺：“但我们不能忽视对国家安全的关注。这么做并不违法。也就是说，我们必须打消人们的疑虑，让他们相信我们仍是一个法制国家。
随着北方邦(Uttar Prades)和旁遮普邦(Punjab)等重要邦的选举即将临近，对于辛格能否劝说政府内外的左翼人士立法执行第二波经济改革，很少有人对此持乐观态度。
他尚未放弃，但语气显得不那么确信：“有种说法叫做‘未知的恐惧’……但在人类事务中，理性确实发挥了作用，还有种说法叫做‘试图说服彼此’。”
