Japanese Rates Appear Steady As Consumer Prices Stay Weak
TOKYO -- Since the Bank of Japan in July abandoned its five-year policy of keeping short-term interest rates near zero, the biggest question has been whether the central bank would raise rates again this year. Now, many economists say that is unlikely to happen.
The reason is stubbornly weak consumer prices. Despite healthy growth in the overall economy, Japanese consumer prices have been very slow to rise. The prices of consumer goods such as flat-panel television sets and furniture continue to decline. Meanwhile, price increases are limited for most other products as a slow recovery in wages keeps consumers from splurging. Economists say the consumer-price indicator will likely remain weak over the coming months because of the recent drop in energy prices and expected declines in cellphone charges amid heated competition.
On Friday, the government said the nationwide core consumer-price index, which includes energy but excludes fresh food, rose just 0.2% from a year earlier, weaker than the 0.3% figure for August. This surprised economists, many of whom had predicted another 0.3% rise.
The latest CPI result is encouraging the more-cautious market participants to predict that the central bank will maintain its current policy of keeping the target for the overnight call rate at 0.25% -- the rate it set in July -- at least until early next year. It also is prompting some of the bulls to scale back their prediction that another rate increase will occur in December, or even November.
"The growth in the core CPI remains weak, and if we exclude energy, prices are still declining," says Daisuke Yamazaki, a Goldman Sachs economist in Tokyo. "In this environment, it's obviously very hard for the BOJ to justify a rate increase."
Changes in interest rates have broad implications for Japan's economy and financial markets. A higher rate would boost the cost of borrowing for everyone from big corporations and homeowners to hedge-fund managers. And the globalization of financial markets means that these effects are felt well beyond Japanese borders. Soon after the central bank's policy changes earlier this year, prices in various overseas markets, including Icelandic stocks and New Zealand bonds, declined as market participants feared flows of money from Japan to these markets would shrink.
After the release of Friday's CPI data, the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond declined to 1.735%, down 0.005 point from the previous day, as its price rose slightly. The current level represents a sizable retreat from a recent high of 1.84% reported on Oct. 23, when more market participants were hopeful of a rise in rates before year end.
"I think the recent optimism over the economic fundamentals will probably be replaced by skepticism in November," says Chotaro Morita, chief bond strategist for Deutsche Securities Inc. in Tokyo. "That would put downward pressure on long-term yields" of Japanese government bonds, he says.
The yen, meanwhile, fell to a record low against the euro Friday in Asia, with the European currency rising to 150.23 yen from 150.80 yen the previous day, and compared with as low as 138 yen earlier in the year. The U.S. dollar was little changed near 118.40 yen in Friday's Asia, but remains well above a 110-yen level in May.
The yen has been losing ground against other major currencies over the past several months, despite the Japanese economy's strength. During the April-June quarter, Japan's economy grew at an annualized pace of 1%. Economists say the yen's weakness is due to a continued wide gap in interest rates between Japan and other major markets, which encourages investors to shift money away from Japan.
Still, some say it is too early to give up hope for another rate increase this year. For one, the sentiment in the corporate sector remains buoyant, as indicated in the Bank of Japan's latest quarterly tankan survey released in early October. Stock prices in Japan have been on a solid upturn since late September. The U.S. economy -- and demand for Japanese products there -- remains robust.
"The BOJ feels the current rate of 0.25% is way too low given that the Japanese economy has the potential to grow at 3% [annually] or so," says Junichi Makino, an economist for Daiwa Institute for Research. "So it will continue to boost the rate unless there is a threat of an economic slowdown." Daiwa expects the central bank to raise interest rates in December.
Senior central-bank officials have indeed hinted in recent weeks that another policy shift is possible this year. "If you ask me if there is a chance of a rate increase this year, I don't think I can deny it," central-bank Gov. Toshihiko Fukui said at a news conference Oct. 13.
The market will likely receive a big clue on the timing of the next rate change tomorrow, when the central bank is to release its semiannual report called the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices. In the closely read document, the policy-board members will reveal their latest forecast for economic growth and the CPI for the current fiscal year ending March 2007 and the year after that. This will play a critical role in determining their policy stance.
Economists expect the median forecast for the core CPI growth for the next fiscal year starting April 1 to drop to 0.5% year-to-year, from 0.8% in the last report in April, due largely to a technical adjustment related to a change in the CPI calculation method implemented in August. A forecast above that level would be interpreted to mean the central bank is eager to boost interest rates soon, while a reading below that would be taken as a sign that it will stay put for a while.
Market participants also will be watching how the wording changes on the two issues that the central bank mentioned as potential risks to the health of Japan's economy: the U.S. economy and an inventory buildup in the high-tech sector.
日本能源战略遭遇挫折
就在日本公布其油气25年发展战略的短短5个月后，这项雄心勃勃的计划就遭遇了重挫，从中日本政府也许会发现，稳定日本未来能源供应可能比它想像的困难。
周一埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)宣布，已经达成了一项初步协议，将向中国、而非最初计划的日本出售在俄罗斯库页岛(Sakhalin Island)开采的天然气。就在几周前，俄罗斯逐步加大了能源监管方面的压力，并有可能危及到库页岛的另一个天然气项目，这个项目年计划产量为1,000万吨，相当于日本目前天然气进口量的1/5，其中多数将销往日本。
另外，本月初，伊朗收回了日本最大的石油开发公司Inpex Holdings Inc.参与阿扎德干(Azadegan)油田一个20亿美元项目的开发权。该项目在其产量高峰期预计可满足日本石油总需求量的6%。
这样的形势发展对日本打击不小，因为日本一直以来都主要依赖签订类似的协议来扩大能源获取途径。作为全球第二大经济体，日本的油气几乎全部依靠进口，全球油价的起伏和产油区政治局势的任何风吹草动都会对日本市场产生明显影响。
今年5月份，日本宣布了一项长期发展战略，要求包括Inpex在内的石油开采商、以及三菱公司(Mitsubishi Corp.)这样的贸易公司加强在全球的能源勘探和开采，以保证油气的稳定供应。这项战略设定的目标是：到2030年，来自日本拥有特许开采权的油田的石油进口量占总需求量的比例从目前的15%提高到40%。
制定这项战略的目的就是要帮助日本摆脱目前这种对油气市场过于敏感的处境。和多数发达国家不同，日本没有一家大型国有石油公司，也没有在全球各大油田拥有权益的实力雄厚的私营公司。这就意味着满足日本油气供应的重担不得不落在一批国内小公司肩上，一些小公司可能会在小型油气项目上有少量投资，比如那些在利比亚、伊朗等政治局势动荡地区的项目。日本是伊朗最大的海外石油客户，去年从伊朗购买的原油数量为581,000桶/天，相当于日本石油总进口量的14%。
事实证明，日本拓展海外能源市场的努力正面临越来越大的困难。随着过去几年油价的不断攀升，能源大国的底气也越来越足，它们开始藉此要求获得更好的交易。另外，包括中国在内一些渴求石油的国家也对日本虎视眈眈，想从日本手中夺走那些日本自以为胜券在握的交易，并与日本在新项目上展开激烈竞争。
日本政府的能源问题顾问、日本和光大学(Wako University)教授Koichi Iwama表示，阿扎德干和库页岛项目都能为日本供应大量能源，没有这些项目的支持，就不可能实现既定的能源目标。Iwama表示，日本应当重新思考其长期能源战略，加大政府的参与程度，或许还应该考虑成立一家国有石油公司。
俄罗斯和伊朗的项目也在提醒人们日本目前所面临的挑战。今年9月，克里姆林宫突然开始介入库页岛的一个天然气项目，这个项目由兰皇家壳牌有限公司(Royal Dutch Shell PLC)牵头开发，同时日本两家贸易公司：三菱和三井物产(Mitsui & Co. Ltd.)也参与其中。俄罗斯政府指责壳牌违反了环保标准，并威胁要收回它的开采许可证。
不过，行业专家猜测，俄罗斯的意图其实是想重新就合约讨价还价，以从产出中获得更大的份额。该项目最初的合同是在90年代签署的，当时油价还很低，产油国不得不提供丰厚的条件吸引石油公司到它们的油田开采。
而在伊朗，自从2004年与伊朗国家石油公司(National Iranian Oil Co.)签署协议以来，Inpex就面临了一系列的障碍。根据当时签署的协议，Inpex获得了储量丰富的阿扎德干油田75%的权益、以及牵头进行开采的权利。
自90年代以来，为了抑制德黑兰在核武器方面的努力以及它对恐怖组织所谓的支持，美国不断加大对伊朗的制裁力度，因此华盛顿方面对于Inpex的这一协议颇有微词。尽管如此，Inpex依然坚持继续与伊朗展开谈判，只是屡次要求伊朗推迟完成交易的最后期限，期待政治紧张气氛能最终得到缓解。
然而，实际情况却在不断恶化。与此同时，Inpex对于从该项目中获取丰厚利润的期望也在降低。目前，联合国安理会正在考虑是否要对伊朗采取进一步的制裁措施，以迫使其放弃铀浓缩计划。美国等国家认为，伊朗铀浓缩计划的目的在于生产核武器，而伊朗却声称其只有民用目的。如果安理会对伊朗实施了制裁措施，日本政府将不得不暂停其提供贷款和低成本贸易保险的计划，这样一来，Inpex将更难为该项目筹集足够资金，更不用说盈利了。
而伊朗方面对于日本的迟缓反应也变得越来越没有耐心。8月份，伊朗官员威胁称，将要把阿扎德干项目给中国或俄罗斯。10月初，Inpex失去了它作为运作方的地位，其持股比例也下降到了10%。Inpex表示，就该项目细节进行的谈判仍在继续。
尽管存在这样那样的困难，但专家们表示，日本应该继续寻找新的油气开发项目。日本能源经济研究所(Institute of Energy Economics Japan)的理事长内藤正久(Masahisa Naito)说，日本其实是别无选择，确保获得稳定的能源供应是日本一项非常重要的任务。
Yuka Hayashi
