Democrats Gain Power From Statehouse Shifts More Control May Influence
Congressional Redistricting And Business Regulations
Tuesday's elections gave Democrats majorities in several state legislatures, creating an imbalance between the two major parties that could affect congressional redistricting in coming years.
The shift also could have implications for a variety of businesses and industries that increasingly see themselves regulated at the local level as Congress punts on a variety of issues. From setting minimum wages to expanding health care for the underinsured to setting environmental policy, state lawmakers are increasingly taking up issues that Washington has refused to touch. For example, six states had minimum-wage increases on Tuesday's ballot, while California attempted, with the support of its governor and legislature, to place restrictions on engine emissions.
Though the power shift wasn't as dramatic as it was during the Republican revolution in 1994, it was still striking, with at least 275 Democrats besting rivals in Tuesday's elections. Democrats, whose hold over statehouses stood at 19, will now hold both chambers in 23 states. Republicans, which controlled legislatures in 20 states, saw their tally dwindle to 16 in Tuesday's balloting. Legislatures remain split in 10 states.
The new tallies include Montana, which wasn't called until yesterday afternoon, following several close races. There, Republicans picked up a few seats to take a slim lead in the house -- the party's only pickup in a chamber that changed hands outright. Republicans also managed a tie in the Oklahoma senate. But because that state's lieutenant governor, a Democrat, would cast the tiebreaker in any vote, the pickup makes little practical difference.
The figures also don't include Nebraska, whose members serve in a unicameral legislature and are forbidden from running under a party banner.
The shift in legislative seats could prove helpful to the six Democratic governors who succeeded Republicans in Tuesday's races. Governors in Colorado, Maryland and Massachusetts will take office in state capitals where legislatures have gone solidly Democratic. Tuesday's results could also give a boost to certain embattled incumbents such as Oregon's Ted Kulongoski and Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm. Mr. Kulongoski will find the legislature unified under Democrats, while Ms. Granholm, who often butted heads with a Republican-dominated legislature in her first term, will find a sympathetic Michigan house when she starts her second term.
In a broader sense and farther down the road, Democratic legislative pickups could prove important in helping the party to maintain its control of the U.S. House. That's because in many states, the legislative leadership controls the congressional-redistricting process, meaning Democrats would draw more of the lines, potentially making it harder for Republicans to win seats and tougher for members of their own party to lose them.
Though such redistricting usually occurs following each 10-year national census, a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling declared that states don't necessarily have to wait until then to redraw the map. But Tim Storey, a political analyst at the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures, said he doubted much off-year redistricting will occur.
Still, with the next redistricting set to occur in 2011, Democratic wins on Tuesday "have to give them confidence" that it will be their party that redraws the map this time around, Mr. Storey said.
民主党在州立法机构选举中占据上风
周二的选举使民主党在几个州的立法机构中获得了多数席位，这将打破民主、共和两党间目前的势力平衡，并有可能在未来几个年中对国会选举的选区重划工作产生影响。
这一选举结果也有可能对众多企业和行业产生影响，由于国会在众多问题上无所作为，对商业事务的监管工作正日益落到地方政府肩上。从制定最低工资标准到将医疗保险扩大到现有保险未覆盖人群，再到制定环境政策，各州的立法机构正日益承担起各种被国会所拒绝的工作。例如，有6个州要求选民在周二投票时一并就是否提高最低工资标准一事举行公投，而加州在州长和州议会的一致支持下则试图针对汽车尾气排放问题制定限制措施。
虽然此次权力变更不像1994年“共和党革命”时那般剧烈，但仍称得上触目惊心，在周二的选举中至少有275位民主党候选人击败了自己的竞争对手。选举前在19个州的议会中占据多数的民主党现在将控制23个州的参众两院。而选举前控制着20个州的立法机构的共和党选举后将只能控制16个州的参众两院。另有10个州是民主党和共和党分别控制参议院和众议院。
这一新统计出的结果也包括了蒙大拿州，由于两党候选人得票非常接近，该州的选举结果直到周三下午才出来。共和党在蒙大拿州众议院的席位增加了几个，以小幅优势获得了多数席位，这是此次选举中议会控制权易手事例中共和党唯一得手的一例。共和党还在俄克拉荷马州参议院中获得了与民主党相同的席位，但由于两党在参议院中势均力敌，决定表决结果的一票将由该州州长投下，而这位州长又是一位民主党人，因此共和党此次在俄州参议院增加的席位几乎没有什么意义。
这一统计数据没有包括内布拉斯加州，该州立法机构实行一院制，并且禁止议员们打着党派的旗号参加竞选。
立法机构控制权的改变可能会对6位在周二选举中击败共和党对手出任州长的民主党人有所帮助。当科罗拉多州、马里兰州和马萨诸塞州新任州长就职时，这些州的立法机构都已为民主党人牢固控制。周二的选举结果对俄勒冈州的特德?库隆格斯基(Ted Kulongoski)和密歇根州的珍妮佛?格兰霍姆(Jennifer Granholm)等处境不佳的民主党现任州长也会有帮助。现在俄勒冈州的参众两院都将被民主党控制，而在自己第一届任期内经常受制于共和党所控制议会的格兰霍姆也将在第二届任期内获得民主党所控制议会的同情。
从更深和更广的意义上说，民主党在州一级立法机构所占席位增加可能对维持该党对国会众议院的控制权也有重要意义。在许多州，议会领袖控制着国会选举的选区重划工作，这意味着此项工作的主导权将更多落入民主党人手中，这可能会使共和党人更加难以赢得国会议员的选举，也意味着民主党人将更不容易失去在国会的现有席位。
虽然选区重划工作通常会在每10年一次的全国人口普查工作结束后进行，不过联邦最高法院(U.S. Supreme Court)最近却做出裁决，称各州不一定非要等到人口普查结果出炉再重新划分选区。但超党派机构全美州议会联合会(National Conference of State Legislatures)的政治分析师提姆?斯托瑞(Tim Storey)却认为，不会有多少州会选择在非人口普查年重新划分选区。
不过，鉴于下一轮选区重划工作将在2011年进行，斯托瑞称，民主党人在周二选举中的胜利将使他们确信，这次该轮到自己的党来主导选区重划工作了。
Christopher Cooper
